Drivers To Throw Caution To The Wind In Indy 500 Qualifying
(Photo by Chris Jones/Penske Entertainment)
By Dennis Krause
Who will win the pole for the 109th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge?
As Bob Dylan famously sang in his 1960’s folk-rock anthem, “The answer is blowin’ in the wind.”
That pretty much sums up the feeling among drivers and teams, alike, on the eve of PPG presents Armed Forces Qualifying weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Saturday’s weather forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, temperatures around 70 and winds from the west at 15 to 25 mph, possibly gusting over 40 mph occasionally. That’s a recipe for what could be one of the most challenging qualifying days at Indy in recent history.
(Photo by Chris Owens/Penske Entertainment
Scott Dixon, driver of the No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda, looks to tie Rick Mears as Indy’s all-time leading pole winner with six. The six-time NTT INDYCAR Series champion and 2008 winner of the Indy 500 believes the forecast conditions will create opportunities for mistakes.
“It's easier just to miss things, I guess. If you're getting gusts, gears are a little bit harder to get right. It may change some of the hybrid strategy if you're getting a lot of limiter, you may regenerate more and deploy more throughout the run as opposed to other strategies that you had set in mind. I think it's just more variables. I think it will definitely be difficult. I think the degradation over the four laps is definitely up with the weight.
“So yeah, I think it will just create opportunity for more mistakes, so you kind of have to be really dialed in.”
Graham Rahal, driver of the No. 15 United Rentals Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda says weather conditions in qualifying will be critical.
“It's going to be tricky tomorrow with the wind. Weather has been okay I think this month or this week so far, but the wind is always a major challenge in qualifying. We might see, what, gusts up to 35 miles an hour or something tomorrow.
“I don't think I've ever experienced it quite that high, so it will be interesting to see how it affects the cars. We'll go out there and do the absolute best that we can.”
(Photo by Chris Owens/Penske Entertainment)
Rahal added there’s next to nothing the team can do to the car’s aero package to mitigate the effect of the wind.
“Look, the wind is the same for everybody. In these cars on an oval, I don't think even if you're at peak aero, maximum downforce, it still makes a large difference. I think the wind that we're going to get tomorrow is much more of a crosswind from sort of the front straight to the back, whereas yesterday it was obviously straight into three.
“We'll just have to adjust at the time. I mean, as a driver, you have to be prepared for it. When you enter turn two, for instance, you have to turn in a little bit earlier because when the wind really pushes you like that, you've got to get down below the grip to let the car take a set, versus if you turn in late, you may just never get to the apex sort of thing.
“Then obviously when you turn into three and into four, it's going to become pretty neutral as you go through and the wind gets on your nose. There are things you have to be prepared for.
“As I said, it's the same for everybody. These cars nowadays, the whole idea of trimming and taking everything off of them, the rear wing is so small and so efficient, there's really not a lot of drag in it.
“The old days of saying that we ran whatever nose up, those days are kind of a thing of the past anyway. There's not much gain to it anymore. You either have natural raw speed and good balance and you can do the time, or you kind of don't, right?
“We should be good. I think we put a lot of effort into that, and whatever tomorrow comes at us with, we'll take it in stride and make the most of it. It's going to be cool tomorrow. Of course, having a cooler day like that helps, period, so we'll see.”
(Photo by Paul Hurley/Penske Entertainment)
Complicating matters is the addition of the new hybrid system. Making its Indy 500 debut this month, Rahal says how to use the hybrid, whether to deploy all the energy at once or trickle it out over a lap - and when to use it, whether in a headwind or tailwind, is something the team is still learning.
“Actually, all of us drivers and engineers, have been watching almost everybody on their cars to understand what they're doing because they're doing things that we didn't really think possible, to be honest.
“All of the Chevys seem to be regenerating, like gearing short and regenerating at peak speed on the back straight. Well, we can obviously change how much regeneration there is.
"When we started with this thing, we didn't know how to do any of that, and really it hasn't been until the last race or two that we've started to play with regen maps and how much regen. For us, if you just pull the paddle, it would really decelerate the car.
“Obviously what we're seeing is they're not having that, so they're clearly messing with the mapping to reduce the regeneration amount. Therefore, they're able to move it more throughout the run.
“There's the ability to just how you use the deploy, when you use the deploy, where you use the deploy. There is so much more that goes into this than I think people realize or recognize that even today I'm pretty sure all of us will be trying something different to learn, to try to see what is best for us.
“It's an interesting thing. I mean, the hybrid, it is quite powerful here. On a single lap if you utilize it correctly, it does make a hell of a difference in lap time or lap speed. There's a lot to be learned there.”
(Photo by Chris Jones/Penske Entertainment)
Will Power, the NTT INDYCAR Series’ all-time pole-winning driver, believes the weather will be a bigger factor in qualifying than the hybrid system.
“Yeah, I think with the weight (of the hybrid unit), it is more difficult or it's more on a knife's edge. You saw a couple of crashes in the test we had here.
“I think the wind is the thing that will play the biggest part in how difficult it's going to be. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The temperature will be a bit cooler, but you're going to have big winds, and these cars are affected a lot by that.”
Last year, Power predicted a Team Penske lockout of the front row in qualifying. Looking into his crystal ball this weekend, what does he see?
“I think one of our cars will be on pole, and I'm not sure about the front row lockout. We have the potential to do it, but the wind is going to play a part. Yeah, I think one of our cars will be on pole.”
Positions 13-30 in the starting field will be set Saturday with the Last Row Shootout, Top 12 and Firestone Fast Six qualifying sessions Sunday afternoon deciding the rest of the 33-car starting grid.
Dennis Krause has spent decades covering all forms of motorsports, including over 40 Indianapolis 500s, with stints at WIBA Radio, PIT PASS - Radio’s Premier Motorsports Magazine and Motorsports Minute. Follow him on X @DennisKrause500 or motorsportsminute.bluesky.social or motorsportsminute on Threads or MotorsportsMinute+ on Facebook.